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AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue grew to $15.10B (+5.6% reported, +6.1% operational) with adjusted EPS of $2.16; GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.02 due to a $3.5B after-tax emraclidine impairment and elevated acquired IPR&D expense (10.4% of sales) .
  • Immunology drove the quarter: Skyrizi $3.78B (+57.7% YoY) and Rinvoq $1.83B (+46.2% YoY) more than offset Humira decline ($1.68B, -49.1% YoY), while Neuroscience (+19.8% YoY) and Oncology (+12.0% YoY) added breadth .
  • 2025 guidance: adjusted EPS $12.12–$12.32; revenue ~ $59B (5.7% operational growth), including Skyrizi $15.9B, Rinvoq $7.9B, Humira $5.6B; adjusted tax rate ~15.6% and operating margin ~47% (all excl. IPR&D) .
  • Long-term: raised 2027 Skyrizi+Rinvoq outlook to >$31B (from >$27B), reaffirmed high-single-digit revenue CAGR through 2029; Aesthetics long-term updated to high-single-digit CAGR (2025–2029) .
  • Stock-relevant catalysts: accelerating IBD share capture for Skyrizi/Rinvoq; 2025 Part D redesign a ~4% net sales headwind (mix-driven uptick vs prior commentary); near-term Aesthetics headwinds but program changes (reinstated Alle) and pipeline (BoNT/E) aim to stabilize/rehaccelerate .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Immunology outperformance: “ex-Humira platform” revenue up 22% in Q4; Skyrizi and Rinvoq combined expected to be nearly $24B in 2025, with raised 2027 target >$31B; strong IBD traction highlighted .
    • Neuroscience strength: Vraylar $924M (+17.1% YoY), Botox Therapeutic $873M (+12.5% YoY), oral CGRPs Ubrelvy $303M (+29.6%) and Qulipta $201M (+76.4%), with Parkinson’s portfolio expansion (Vyalev launch; tavapadon Phase 3 positive) .
    • Operational discipline: Q4 adjusted gross margin 83.8% and adjusted operating margin 34.7% despite IPR&D drag; 2025 guided ~84% adjusted GM and ~47% adjusted OM as mix shifts to higher-margin growth assets .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Aesthetics softness: Q4 Aesthetics $1.30B (-5.2% YoY) on U.S./China macro and initial provider pushback to new loyalty program; share loss “a few points”; company reverted to original Alle in January .
    • Cerevel emraclidine Phase 2 miss triggered a $3.5B after-tax impairment and GAAP loss; company pursuing adjunct indications and dose optimization, but monotherapy path is now more risk-adjusted and delayed .
    • Medicare Part D redesign: net ~4% 2025 headwind (vs earlier ~3%); especially affecting oncology and immunology; only modest volume offset expected .

Financial Results

Headline results vs prior periods

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($B)$14.301 $14.460 $15.102
GAAP Diluted EPS$0.46 $0.88 $(0.02)
Adjusted Diluted EPS$2.79 $3.00 $2.16

Margins and operating ratios

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024
Adjusted Gross Margin %84.4% 83.8%
Adjusted Operating Margin %46.7% 34.7%
Adjusted R&D % of Sales14.2% 15.1%
Adjusted SG&A % of Sales23.0% 23.6%
Adjusted Tax Rate16.2% 20.2%
Net Interest Expense ($M)$591 $610

Segment and key products – Q4 2024 (YoY reported growth)

Portfolio / ProductQ4 2024 ($M)YoY %
Immunology7,294 +4.9%
• Skyrizi3,778 +57.7%
• Rinvoq1,834 +46.2%
• Humira1,682 -49.1%
Oncology1,691 +12.0%
• Imbruvica848 -6.2%
• Venclexta655 +11.0%
• Elahere148 n/m
Neuroscience2,509 +19.8%
• Botox Therapeutic873 +12.5%
• Vraylar924 +17.1%
• Ubrelvy303 +29.6%
• Qulipta201 +76.4%
Aesthetics1,298 -5.2%
• Botox Cosmetic687 -4.2%
• Juvederm279 -16.3%
Eye Care646 +10.2%

KPIs and non-GAAP adjustments – Q4 2024

  • Acquired IPR&D expense = 10.4% of sales; adjusted EPS impact -$0.88; GAAP loss driven by partial emraclidine impairment ($3.5B after-tax) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPS (ex-IPR&D)FY2025—$12.12–$12.32 New
RevenueFY2025—~ $59B; +5.7% operational; FX ~ -1% New
Skyrizi revenueFY2025—~$15.9B New
Rinvoq revenueFY2025—~$7.9B New
Humira revenueFY2025—~$5.6B (U.S. ~$4.0B) New
Oncology revenueFY2025—~$6.3B; Imbruvica ~$2.7B; Venclexta ~$2.6B; Elahere ~$0.75B New
Aesthetics revenueFY2025—~$5.3B New
Neuroscience revenueFY2025—~$10.0B; Vraylar ~$3.5B; Botox Therapeutic ~$3.5B; Oral CGRP ~$2.1B; Vyalev ~$0.3B New
Adjusted OM ratioFY2025—~47% New
Adjusted GM%FY2025—~84% New
Adjusted tax rateFY2025—~15.6% New
Skyrizi+Rinvoq sales2027>$27B >$31B Raised
Company revenue CAGR2024–2029High single-digit High single-digit reaffirmed Maintained
Aesthetics LT CAGR2025–2029—High single-digit CAGR Updated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Immunology momentum (Skyrizi/Rinvoq)Skyrizi UC approval; strong growth in both assets Skyrizi $3.205B (+50.8%); Rinvoq $1.614B (+45.3%) Skyrizi $3.778B (+57.7%); Rinvoq $1.834B (+46.2%); raised 2027 combined outlook Improving
Humira erosion/molecule compressionOngoing U.S. erosion Humira $2.227B (-37.2%) $1.682B (-49.1%); half U.S. lives expected parity; more exclusions mid-2025 Deteriorating (as expected)
Medicare Part D redesignNot quantified~3% headwind implied mix ~4% net headwind; modest volume offsets; oncology, immunology most exposed Increasing headwind
Aesthetics+0.5% in Q2; China weak Slightly down; Juvederm soft -5.2%; reverted to original Alle; expect modest 2025 growth; long-term HSD CAGR Near-term soft, stabilizing actions
Oncology pipeline (ADCs/Elahere/Teliso-V/ABBV-400)Teliso-V BLA/ADC data Elahere CHMP positive; ADC platform updates EC Elahere approval; Teliso-V decision 1H25; ABBV-400 advancing to Ph3 CRC Strengthening
NeuroscienceVyalev device CRL resolved via approval later; strong Vraylar Cerevel deal closed; tavapadon TEMPO-1 positive Emraclidine Ph2 miss/impairment; tavapadon Ph3 positive; Vyalev launched Mixed: near-term setback, longer-term optionality

Management Commentary

  • “We are entering 2025 with significant momentum and expect net revenues to exceed their previous peak in just the second full year following the U.S. Humira loss of exclusivity.” – CEO Rob Michael .
  • “We now expect Skyrizi and Rinvoq to exceed more than $31 billion of combined sales in 2027… driven by strong performance across all approved indications, especially in IBD.” – CEO Rob Michael .
  • “Fourth quarter… adjusted EPS of $2.16, which is $0.08 above our guidance midpoint… ex-Humira platform delivered reported growth of 22%.” – CFO Scott Reents .
  • “We reinstated our original Alle consumer loyalty program… with encouraging early indicators for sales and market share recovery.” – Carrie Strom (Allergan Aesthetics) .
  • “A thorough analysis… shows a path forward for emraclidine as an adjunct… and potentially monotherapy at higher doses” – Roopal Thakkar (R&D/CSO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Skyrizi/Rinvoq trajectory: Upside drivers are primarily share capture across indications; 2027 breakdown: Skyrizi ~$20B (psoriatic ~$12.5B; IBD ~$7.5B), Rinvoq ~$11B (Rheum $4.8B; Derm $2.5B; IBD $3.7B) .
  • Part D redesign: Net ~4% growth headwind; modest volume offsets concentrated in standard-eligible segment; no spillover to commercial contracting observed .
  • Aesthetics trough and BoNT/E: 2025 modeled as trough with HSD CAGR to 2029; BoNT/E expected to activate “considerer” patients and funnel to Botox over time .
  • Inventory/gross-to-net: No unusual Q4 stocking or GTN dynamics for Skyrizi/Rinvoq ahead of Part D changes .
  • AD uptake/AtoDerm: Rinvoq in-play share >20% with differentiation on stringent endpoints; pipeline (lutikizumab) targeted to augment franchise .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at the time of retrieval due to vendor rate limits; therefore, we cannot quantify beat/miss vs Street consensus. Values from S&P Global could not be retrieved at this time.
  • Company vs guidance: Adjusted EPS of $2.16 was $0.08 above AbbVie’s internal guidance midpoint for Q4; revenue of $15.10B was described as “robust,” with ex-Humira +22% and total +6.1% operational growth .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Immunology engine accelerating: Skyrizi/Rinvoq momentum (esp. IBD) supports 2025 growth and raised 2027 target >$31B; this is the primary multi-year stock driver .
  • 2025 setup resilient despite headwinds: ~5.7% operational revenue growth and mid-teens tax rate guided, absorbing ~4% Part D and ~$3B U.S. Humira erosion .
  • Aesthetics near-term weak but stabilizing: Reversion to prior loyalty program and product cadence aim to recapture share; long-term HSD CAGR reset provides a more conservative, achievable base .
  • Mixed neuroscience update: Emraclidine impairment is a headline negative; tavapadon and Vyalev expand Parkinson’s platform and maintain optionality into late decade .
  • ADC franchise scaling: Elahere EU approval, Teliso-V potential 1H25 approval, and ABBV-400 progression underpin oncology optionality .
  • Watch Part D dynamics intra-year: Expect pressure in oncology/immunology with modest volume offsets; company pricing commentary implies ongoing low single-digit rebate pressure but volume-led growth .
  • Catalyst path: Regulatory milestones (Teliso-V), IBD share data points for Skyrizi/Rinvoq, aesthetics KPIs post-Alle reversion, and neuroscience readouts should shape estimate revisions and sentiment .

Appendix: Other Relevant Press Releases (Q4 2024 window)

  • EC approval of Elahere for FRα-positive platinum‑resistant ovarian cancer (first novel therapy in EU for this population) .
  • Emraclidine Phase 2 EMPOWER trials did not meet primary endpoints (schizophrenia); safety acceptable; post-hoc analysis/plans described on call .
  • Aliada Therapeutics acquisition (BBB-crossing tech; ALIA‑1758 in AD) and EvolveImmune collaboration (multispecific T-cell engagers) .